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Shock result as Everton defy the odds to beat Bournemouth 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton beat Bournemouth 0-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.30 xG and Everton 0.91 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bournemouth fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.05 / defence 0.85 against Everton attack 0.86 / defence 0.82, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 46% | Draw 28% | Everton 26%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Everton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 59%, Everton 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bournemouth's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Everton's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.47 PPG, Everton 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights