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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bournemouth edge out Everton 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bournemouth beat Everton 1-0 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.30 xG and Everton 0.62 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.90 / defence 0.70 against Everton attack 0.60 / defence 0.99, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 51% | Draw 34% | Everton 16%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 66%, Everton 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bournemouth's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Everton's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.38 PPG, Everton 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Bournemouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights