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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Bournemouth run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Crystal Palace.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bournemouth beat Crystal Palace 3-0 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.50 xG and Crystal Palace 1.29 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bournemouth beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crystal Palace landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against Crystal Palace attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 72/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 41% | Draw 28% | Crystal Palace 31%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 58%, Crystal Palace 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bournemouth's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Crystal Palace's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.46 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Bournemouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights