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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Brentford edge out Bournemouth 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brentford beat Bournemouth 1-2 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.09 xG and Brentford 1.10 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Brentford outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.92 / defence 0.69 against Brentford attack 1.07 / defence 0.82, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 35% | Draw 29% | Brentford 36%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 65%, Brentford 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bournemouth's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Brentford's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.39 PPG, Brentford 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brentford win broke the near-deadlock. Bournemouth (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights