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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bournemouth and Aston Villa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bournemouth and Aston Villa finished level at 1-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.52 xG and Aston Villa 1.50 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.09 / defence 1.05 against Aston Villa attack 1.14 / defence 0.93, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 36% | Draw 30% | Aston Villa 35%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 58%, Aston Villa 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bournemouth's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Aston Villa's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.44 PPG, Aston Villa 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights