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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Aston Villa edge out Wolves 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aston Villa beat Wolves 1-0 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.96 xG and Wolves 0.61 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Aston Villa fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 1.09 / defence 0.78 against Wolves attack 0.63 / defence 1.16, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 69% | Draw 20% | Wolves 11%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 60%, Wolves 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aston Villa's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Wolves's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Aston Villa arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Aston Villa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Wolves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights