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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Aston Villa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over West Ham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aston Villa beat West Ham 2-0 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.58 xG and West Ham 1.22 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. West Ham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against West Ham attack 1.01 / defence 1.20, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 44% | Draw 29% | West Ham 27%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 57%, West Ham 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aston Villa's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

West Ham's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Aston Villa arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Aston Villa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights