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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Aston Villa and West Ham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Villa Park, Regular Season - 23, as Aston Villa and West Ham drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.95 xG and West Ham 1.07 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Aston Villa fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 1.14 / defence 0.87 against West Ham attack 0.78 / defence 1.17, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 57% | Draw 24% | West Ham 19%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 72%, West Ham 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aston Villa's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

West Ham's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Aston Villa arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Aston Villa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward. West Ham (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights