🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Tottenham defy the odds to beat Aston Villa 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tottenham beat Aston Villa 1-2 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.53 xG and Tottenham 1.13 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Tottenham outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 1.11 / defence 1.06 against Tottenham attack 0.87 / defence 0.95, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 45% | Draw 28% | Tottenham 27%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Tottenham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 56%, Tottenham 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aston Villa's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Tottenham's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Aston Villa arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Tottenham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Aston Villa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights