🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Aston Villa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Tottenham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aston Villa beat Tottenham 2-0 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 37, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 2.10 xG and Tottenham 1.16 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Tottenham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 1.19 / defence 0.82 against Tottenham attack 1.00 / defence 1.23, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 59% | Draw 21% | Tottenham 20%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 69%, Tottenham 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aston Villa's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Tottenham's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Aston Villa 1.77 PPG, Tottenham 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aston Villa win broke the near-deadlock. Aston Villa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights