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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Aston Villa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nottingham Forest.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aston Villa beat Nottingham Forest 3-1 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.61 xG and Nottingham Forest 0.68 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Aston Villa beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 1.10 / defence 0.73 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.75 / defence 0.99, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 59% | Draw 27% | Nottingham Forest 14%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 63%, Nottingham Forest 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aston Villa's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Aston Villa 1.84 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aston Villa win broke the near-deadlock. Aston Villa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights