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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Aston Villa cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Liverpool.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aston Villa beat Liverpool 4-2 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 37, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.68 xG and Liverpool 1.56 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Aston Villa beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 1.08 / defence 1.12 against Liverpool attack 1.14 / defence 1.07, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 40% | Draw 26% | Liverpool 35%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 57%, Liverpool 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aston Villa's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Liverpool's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Aston Villa 1.69 PPG, Liverpool 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aston Villa win broke the near-deadlock. Aston Villa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Liverpool (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights