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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Aston Villa and Leeds share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Villa Park, Regular Season - 27, as Aston Villa and Leeds drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.75 xG and Leeds 0.87 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 0.97 / defence 0.73 against Leeds attack 0.93 / defence 1.23, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 56% | Draw 28% | Leeds 16%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 58%, Leeds 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aston Villa's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Leeds's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Aston Villa 1.81 PPG, Leeds 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights