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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Aston Villa and Ipswich share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Villa Park, Regular Season - 25, as Aston Villa and Ipswich drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.90 xG and Ipswich 1.11 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Aston Villa fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 1.03 / defence 0.89 against Ipswich attack 0.82 / defence 1.22, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 55% | Draw 24% | Ipswich 21%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 69%, Ipswich 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aston Villa's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Ipswich's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Aston Villa 1.69 PPG, Ipswich 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Aston Villa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights