Aston Villa 1-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aston Villa at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aston Villa vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fulham make the trip to Villa Park to face Aston Villa in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Aston Villa (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Aston Villa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Villa Park, Aston Villa have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fulham have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fulham have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Aston Villa. A 0.50 PPG lead over Fulham (1.70 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Aston Villa have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 8 meetings, with Fulham managing just 2 victories and 0 draws shared.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Fulham winning.
The historical record gives Aston Villa a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Aston Villa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Fulham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aston Villa 56% versus Fulham 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aston Villa 54% | Fulham 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aston Villa 1.34 xG and Fulham 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aston Villa attack 1.068 / defence 1.051 | Fulham attack 0.740 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.229. Data: 46 Aston Villa games / 46 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aston Villa 45% | Draw 30% | Fulham 26%. Fair-value odds: Aston Villa 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Fulham 3.85. Aston Villa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aston Villa are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aston Villa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Aston Villa 80% | Fulham 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aston Villa vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Villa Park • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aston Villa 45% | Draw 30% | Fulham 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Aston Villa 1.34 / Fulham 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Aston Villa attack 1.068 / def 1.051 | Fulham attack 0.740 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Aston Villa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Aston Villa xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Fulham xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aston Villa vs Fulham kick off?
Aston Villa vs Fulham kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Villa Park.
What was the final score in Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Aston Villa 1 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Aston Villa vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Villa Park.
What competition is Aston Villa vs Fulham part of?
Aston Villa vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Aston Villa a 45% chance of winning, Fulham a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Aston Villa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Aston Villa and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Aston Villa vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Fulham?
Record (8 meetings): Aston Villa 6W | Draws 0 | Fulham 2W.
What form are Aston Villa and Fulham in?
Aston Villa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Fulham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Aston Villa's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (0.74x) against Aston Villa's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aston Villa Win
45%
2.24
30%
3.36
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Aston Villa xG
Total xG
2.30
0.96
Fulham xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
7%
14.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Aston Villa and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Aston Villa and 0.96 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Aston Villa come into this having played 46 games, going 22W 10D 14L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Aston Villa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.30 PPG from 46 outings (17W 9D 20L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Aston Villa against 1.30 for Fulham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Aston Villa's home form reads 13W 3D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 0.91 points per game from 23 outings (5W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aston Villa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aston Villa are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.20 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aston Villa
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aston Villa and Fulham in coming into this match?
Aston Villa have gone 22W 10D 14L in their last 46 games (1.65 PPG), while Fulham have gone 17W 9D 20L in their last 46 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aston Villa at home or Fulham away?
Aston Villa's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aston Villa at home: 1.83 PPG; Fulham away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fulham won 3-0 on 20 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aston Villa have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Aston Villa
1
Draws
2
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Fulham?
From 9 meetings on record, Aston Villa have won 6, Fulham have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aston Villa and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Aston Villa 1-1 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Aston Villa and Fulham?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Aston Villa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Fulham see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aston Villa 56%, Fulham 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Aston Villa) and 44% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Fulham in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aston Villa home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aston Villa play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Aston Villa's recent matches and 48% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aston Villa vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Aston Villa's recent games and 44% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aston Villa and Fulham tend to score early?
Aston Villa have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Fulham in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aston Villa and Fulham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aston Villa and Fulham finished level at 1-1 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.34 xG and Fulham 0.96 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 1.07 / defence 1.05 against Fulham attack 0.74 / defence 0.87, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 45% | Draw 30% | Fulham 26%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 54%, Fulham 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aston Villa's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Fulham's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aston Villa 1.65 PPG, Fulham 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.