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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Aston Villa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fulham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aston Villa beat Fulham 3-1 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.25 xG and Fulham 1.13 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Aston Villa beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 0.89 / defence 1.04 against Fulham attack 0.90 / defence 0.99, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 38% | Draw 29% | Fulham 33%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 58%, Fulham 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aston Villa's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Fulham's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Aston Villa 1.60 PPG, Fulham 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aston Villa win broke the near-deadlock. Aston Villa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Fulham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights