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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 6

Kick-off

Sun 28 Sep 2025

14:00

Venue

Villa Park

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Aston Villa Win

38%

Aston Villa

2.60

29%

Draw

3.50

33%

Fulham

3.04

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.1%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.6%

Home win

0 – 1

10.5%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.25

Aston Villa xG

Total xG

2.38

1.13

Fulham xG

38%
29%
33%
Aston VillaDrawFulham

2.60

38%

Home win

3.50

29%

Draw

3.04

33%

Away win

Goals Markets

69%

Over 1.5

1.45

31%

Under 1.5

3.23

42%

Over 2.5

2.38

58%

Under 2.5

1.72

22%

Over 3.5

4.55

78%

Under 3.5

1.28

9%

Over 4.5

11.11

91%

Under 4.5

1.10

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

49%

BTTS Yes

2.06

51%

BTTS No

1.95

Clean Sheet

32%

Aston Villa

3.10

29%

Fulham

3.47

Win to Nil

12%

Aston Villa

8.05

9%

Fulham

10.54

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.3 10.5 5.9 2.2 0.6 0.1
1 11.6 13.1 7.4 2.8 0.8 0.2
2 7.2 8.1 4.6 1.7 0.5 0.1
3 3.0 3.4 1.9 0.7 0.2
4 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1
5 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.245
λ Away (xG) 1.131
Total xG 2.376
League avg home goals 1.411
League avg away goals 1.210
Aston Villa attack strength 0.887
Aston Villa defence strength 1.037
Fulham attack strength 0.901
Fulham defence strength 0.995
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 43 / 43