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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Aston Villa edge out Fulham 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aston Villa beat Fulham 1-0 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.70 xG and Fulham 1.21 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fulham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 1.22 / defence 0.89 against Fulham attack 0.97 / defence 0.95, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 49% | Draw 24% | Fulham 27%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 71%, Fulham 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aston Villa's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Fulham's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Aston Villa 1.74 PPG, Fulham 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aston Villa win broke the near-deadlock. Aston Villa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights