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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Aston Villa edge out Burnley 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aston Villa beat Burnley 2-1 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 2.46 xG and Burnley 1.07 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against Burnley attack 0.87 / defence 1.65, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 67% | Draw 18% | Burnley 14%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 59%, Burnley 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aston Villa's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Burnley's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Aston Villa 1.64 PPG, Burnley 1.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aston Villa win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights