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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Aston Villa run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Bournemouth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aston Villa beat Bournemouth 4-0 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.81 xG and Bournemouth 1.37 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Aston Villa beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bournemouth landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 0.95 / defence 0.90 against Bournemouth attack 1.29 / defence 1.24, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 48% | Draw 23% | Bournemouth 29%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 58%, Bournemouth 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aston Villa's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Bournemouth's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Aston Villa 1.69 PPG, Bournemouth 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aston Villa win broke the near-deadlock. Aston Villa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights