Arsenal 3-0 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Arsenal (56%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Arsenal face Fulham.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Emirates Stadium plays host to Arsenal versus Fulham in Premier League (matchday 35). Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 18:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Arsenal have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Arsenal have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fulham's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Fulham's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Arsenal's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Fulham's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Arsenal, who have won 4 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against Fulham — Fulham have 1 win, with 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Arsenal 1–0 Fulham — a Arsenal win.
The head-to-head data gives Arsenal an edge — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Arsenal — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 35 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Fulham — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arsenal 54% versus Fulham 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arsenal 49% | Fulham 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Arsenal surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Fulham have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Fulham surrender HT leads in 39% of cases while Arsenal recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 67% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal 1.58 xG and Fulham 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal attack 1.180 / defence 0.777 | Fulham attack 0.790 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.240. Fulham's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Arsenal have a tight defence (rating 0.777), which is pulling Fulham's projected output down. Data: built from Arsenal's last 72 games and Fulham's last 72.
Result probabilities: Arsenal 56% | Draw 28% | Fulham 17%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal 1.80 | Draw 3.62 | Fulham 5.98. The model has a clear lean to Arsenal (56%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arsenal are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Arsenal 60% (last 10 home games) | Fulham 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 35 | Venue: Emirates Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal 56% | Draw 28% | Fulham 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Arsenal 1.58 / Fulham 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal attack 1.180 / def 0.777 | Fulham attack 0.790 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Arsenal xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Fulham xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Arsenal vs Fulham FAQs
What time does Arsenal vs Fulham kick off?
Arsenal vs Fulham kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Emirates Stadium.
What was the final score in Arsenal vs Fulham?
Arsenal 3 - 0 Fulham.
Where is Arsenal vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Emirates Stadium.
What competition is Arsenal vs Fulham part of?
Arsenal vs Fulham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 35) (England).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal a 56% chance of winning, Fulham a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Arsenal and Fulham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Arsenal vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Arsenal's attack at 1.18x the league average against Fulham's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (0.79x) against Arsenal's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from Arsenal's last 72 games and Fulham's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
56%
1.80
28%
3.62
17%
5.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Arsenal xG
Total xG
2.34
0.76
Fulham xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
5.98
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
3%
29.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 11.6 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Arsenal vs Fulham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Arsenal and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.76 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal vs Fulham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Arsenal have picked up 2.04 PPG on a 42W 21D 9L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Fulham's form line: 29W 15D 28L from 72 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Arsenal are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fulham.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Arsenal have posted 2.22 PPG from their last 36 home games (24W 8D 4L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 12W 8D 16L from their last 36 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arsenal are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.36 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham in 64%.
Defensively: Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
Arsenal (Home) vs Fulham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Arsenal
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Arsenal vs Fulham Form FAQs
What form are Arsenal and Fulham in coming into this match?
Arsenal have gone 42W 21D 9L in their last 72 games (2.04 PPG), while Fulham have gone 29W 15D 28L in their last 72 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arsenal at home or Fulham away?
Arsenal's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arsenal at home: 2.22 PPG; Fulham away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Arsenal or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Fulham in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Arsenal have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arsenal won Fulham 0-3 Arsenal on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arsenal have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Arsenal
2
Draws
1
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Arsenal vs Fulham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Fulham?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Arsenal have won 5, Fulham have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal and Fulham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Arsenal 3-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal and Fulham?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arsenal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arsenal 53%, Fulham 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Arsenal) and 50% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Fulham in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Arsenal vs Fulham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Arsenal and Fulham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Arsenal's games and 61% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Arsenal and Fulham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Arsenal's recent games and 50% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arsenal and Fulham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Arsenal's recent matches and 67% of Fulham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Arsenal run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fulham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat Fulham 3-0 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 1.58 xG and Fulham 0.76 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Arsenal beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.18 / defence 0.78 against Fulham attack 0.79 / defence 0.94, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal 56% | Draw 28% | Fulham 17%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 49%, Fulham 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arsenal's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fulham's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.42. Form held, and they took the win. Arsenal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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