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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Arsenal and Crystal Palace share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 34, as Arsenal and Crystal Palace drew 2-2 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 1.97 xG and Crystal Palace 0.97 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Crystal Palace outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.15 / defence 0.74 against Crystal Palace attack 0.92 / defence 1.19, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arsenal 61% | Draw 21% | Crystal Palace 18%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 52%, Crystal Palace 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arsenal's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Crystal Palace's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Arsenal (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights