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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Arsenal edge out Burnley 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arsenal beat Burnley 1-0 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 2.87 xG and Burnley 0.77 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Arsenal fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.24 / defence 0.74 against Burnley attack 0.84 / defence 1.57, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arsenal 80% | Draw 14% | Burnley 7%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 80%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 49%, Burnley 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arsenal's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Burnley's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Arsenal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights