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Shock result as Bournemouth defy the odds to beat Arsenal 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bournemouth beat Arsenal 1-2 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 2.01 xG and Bournemouth 0.95 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Arsenal fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bournemouth outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.34 / defence 0.75 against Bournemouth attack 1.02 / defence 1.08, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arsenal 60% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 15%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Bournemouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 48%, Bournemouth 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arsenal's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Bournemouth's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.42. Form was overturned, with Bournemouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arsenal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights