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Shock result as Bournemouth defy the odds to beat Arsenal 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bournemouth beat Arsenal 1-2 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 1.66 xG and Bournemouth 1.30 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.13 / defence 0.82 against Bournemouth attack 1.13 / defence 0.99, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arsenal 46% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 30%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Bournemouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 53%, Bournemouth 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arsenal's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Bournemouth's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.36. Form was overturned, with Bournemouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arsenal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bournemouth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights