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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Arsenal and Aston Villa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arsenal and Aston Villa finished level at 2-2 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 2.04 xG and Aston Villa 0.80 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Aston Villa outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.18 / defence 0.65 against Aston Villa attack 0.81 / defence 1.21, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arsenal 64% | Draw 24% | Aston Villa 12%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 56%, Aston Villa 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arsenal's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Aston Villa's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Arsenal (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights