Wrexham 0-1 Tranmere – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wrexham at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wrexham vs Tranmere fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
STōK Cae Ras plays host to Wrexham versus Tranmere in League Two, Regular Season - 39. Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Wrexham's overall League Two record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Wrexham's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at STōK Cae Ras this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at STōK Cae Ras. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Wrexham are significantly better at STōK Cae Ras than their overall form suggests.
Tranmere (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League Two this season, Tranmere have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Wrexham 1W, Tranmere 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Wrexham winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Wrexham half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Tranmere half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wrexham 51% versus Tranmere 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 49% | Tranmere 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 1.90 xG and Tranmere 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 1.234 / defence 0.741 | Tranmere attack 0.855 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.274. Wrexham's defence rating of 0.741 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Wrexham games / 84 Tranmere games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wrexham 63% | Draw 22% | Tranmere 15%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Tranmere 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Wrexham (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wrexham as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wrexham 20% | Tranmere 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wrexham vs Tranmere | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: STōK Cae Ras • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wrexham 63% | Draw 22% | Tranmere 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 48% | xG Wrexham 1.90 / Tranmere 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Wrexham attack 1.234 / def 0.741 | Tranmere attack 0.855 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Wrexham xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Tranmere xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wrexham vs Tranmere kick off?
Wrexham vs Tranmere kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at STōK Cae Ras.
What was the final score in Wrexham vs Tranmere?
Wrexham 0 - 1 Tranmere.
Where is Wrexham vs Tranmere being played?
The match is being played at STōK Cae Ras.
What competition is Wrexham vs Tranmere part of?
Wrexham vs Tranmere is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Wrexham vs Tranmere?
Our statistical model gives Wrexham a 63% chance of winning, Tranmere a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Tranmere?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Wrexham and Tranmere will score (BTTS).
Will Wrexham vs Tranmere have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Tranmere?
Record (1 meetings): Wrexham 1W | Draws 0 | Tranmere 0W.
What form are Wrexham and Tranmere in?
Wrexham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Tranmere (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Wrexham's attack at 1.23x the league average against Tranmere's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tranmere's attack (0.85x) against Wrexham's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 37/84 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
63%
1.59
22%
4.45
15%
6.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Wrexham xG
Total xG
2.71
0.81
Tranmere xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
6.76
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
15%
6.69
Win to Nil
28%
3.57
2%
45.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wrexham vs Tranmere?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Wrexham and Tranmere expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Wrexham and 0.81 for Tranmere, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Wrexham vs Tranmere?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wrexham's recent record stands at 19W 10D 8L from 37 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Tranmere, meanwhile, have gone 14W 5D 18L across 37 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wrexham by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tranmere heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Wrexham have managed 13W 3D 2L from 18 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — Wrexham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Tranmere's away record stands at 3W 3D 12L across 18 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Tranmere's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wrexham are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Tranmere are on 1.51 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wrexham
Current Season
Tranmere
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wrexham and Tranmere in coming into this match?
Wrexham have gone 19W 10D 8L in their last 37 games (1.81 PPG), while Tranmere have gone 14W 5D 18L in their last 37 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wrexham at home or Tranmere away?
Wrexham's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wrexham at home: 2.33 PPG; Tranmere away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Wrexham or Tranmere been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Tranmere in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Wrexham
0
Draws
1
Tranmere
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Tranmere?
From 2 meetings on record, Wrexham have won 1, Tranmere have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wrexham and Tranmere last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Wrexham 0-1 Tranmere.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Tranmere are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wrexham 50%, Tranmere 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Wrexham) and 44% (Tranmere). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wrexham keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Tranmere in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wrexham home games / Tranmere away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wrexham play Tranmere?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Wrexham's recent matches and 56% of Tranmere's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wrexham vs Tranmere usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Wrexham's matches and 44% of Tranmere's.
Do Wrexham and Tranmere tend to score early?
Wrexham have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Tranmere in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tranmere defy the odds to beat Wrexham 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tranmere beat Wrexham 0-1 at STōK Cae Ras, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.90 xG and Tranmere 0.81 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wrexham fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.23 / defence 0.74 against Tranmere attack 0.85 / defence 1.08, drawn from 37/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wrexham 63% | Draw 22% | Tranmere 15%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Tranmere win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 49%, Tranmere 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wrexham's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Tranmere's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Tranmere winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wrexham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Tranmere (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.