Forest Green 0-1 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Forest Green (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Forest Green face Sutton Utd.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Forest Green host Sutton Utd at The Bolt New Lawn in League Two, Regular Season - 39. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Forest Green stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Forest Green have posted 2W 4D 4L at The Bolt New Lawn — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sutton Utd — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League Two this season, Sutton Utd have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Forest Green are in the better shape of the two on current League Two data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Forest Green's 30% rate and Sutton Utd's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Forest Green, 0 for Sutton Utd and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Forest Green winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Forest Green in-play tendencies (83 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Sutton Utd in-play tendencies (83 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forest Green 48% versus Sutton Utd 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forest Green 48% | Sutton Utd 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forest Green 1.16 xG and Sutton Utd 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forest Green attack 0.692 / defence 1.137 | Sutton Utd attack 0.752 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.274. Forest Green's attack strength of 0.692 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Forest Green games / 84 Sutton Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forest Green 37% | Draw 30% | Sutton Utd 33%. Fair-value odds: Forest Green 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Sutton Utd 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Forest Green as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forest Green offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Forest Green 30% | Sutton Utd 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forest Green vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: The Bolt New Lawn • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forest Green 37% | Draw 30% | Sutton Utd 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Forest Green 1.16 / Sutton Utd 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Forest Green attack 0.692 / def 1.137 | Sutton Utd attack 0.752 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Forest Green (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Forest Green xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Sutton Utd xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forest Green vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Forest Green vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at The Bolt New Lawn.
What was the final score in Forest Green vs Sutton Utd?
Forest Green 0 - 1 Sutton Utd.
Where is Forest Green vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at The Bolt New Lawn.
What competition is Forest Green vs Sutton Utd part of?
Forest Green vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Forest Green vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Forest Green a 37% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Forest Green the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forest Green vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Forest Green and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Forest Green vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forest Green and Sutton Utd?
Record (3 meetings): Forest Green 2W | Draws 1 | Sutton Utd 0W.
What form are Forest Green and Sutton Utd in?
Forest Green (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Sutton Utd (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Forest Green's attack rating (0.69) and Sutton Utd's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sutton Utd's attack versus Forest Green's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/84 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forest Green Win
37%
2.73
30%
3.34
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Forest Green xG
Total xG
2.24
1.09
Sutton Utd xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
11%
9.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.5 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forest Green vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Forest Green and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Forest Green and 1.09 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Forest Green vs Sutton Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Forest Green come into this having played 83 games, going 14W 18D 51L for 0.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Sutton Utd sit at 1.01 PPG from 83 outings (20W 24D 39L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Forest Green on 0.72 PPG, Sutton Utd on 1.01. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Forest Green's home form reads 9W 6D 27L across 42 games on their own ground, a 0.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Sutton Utd have taken 0.71 points per game from 42 outings (6W 12D 24L).
The Goals Picture
Forest Green are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.04 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 83 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forest Green
Current Season
Sutton Utd
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forest Green and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Forest Green have gone 14W 18D 51L in their last 83 games (0.72 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 20W 24D 39L in their last 83 (1.01 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forest Green at home or Sutton Utd away?
Forest Green's home record (0.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forest Green at home: 0.79 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forest Green and Sutton Utd runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Forest Green's record when hosting Sutton Utd specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Forest Green
1
Draws
1
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forest Green and Sutton Utd?
From 4 meetings on record, Forest Green have won 2, Sutton Utd have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Forest Green and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Forest Green 0-1 Sutton Utd.
Who has won more matches between Forest Green and Sutton Utd?
Forest Green have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forest Green are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forest Green 43%, Sutton Utd 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Forest Green) and 48% (Sutton Utd).
On the defensive side: Forest Green have failed to score in 43% of games; Sutton Utd in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forest Green home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forest Green play Sutton Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Forest Green's recent matches and 52% of Sutton Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forest Green vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Forest Green's recent games and 48% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forest Green and Sutton Utd tend to score early?
Forest Green have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sutton Utd in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sutton Utd defy the odds to beat Forest Green 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sutton Utd beat Forest Green 0-1 at The Bolt New Lawn, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forest Green 1.16 xG and Sutton Utd 1.09 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Forest Green fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forest Green attack 0.69 / defence 1.14 against Sutton Utd attack 0.75 / defence 1.17, drawn from 37/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forest Green 37% | Draw 30% | Sutton Utd 33%, with Forest Green to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Sutton Utd win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forest Green 48%, Sutton Utd 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forest Green's trading profile (83 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (83 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forest Green 0.72 PPG, Sutton Utd 1.01 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sutton Utd win broke the near-deadlock. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.