Walsall vs Notts County – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Walsall edge out Notts County 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Walsall beat Notts County 3-2 at Poundland Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 1.72 xG and Notts County 1.55 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Walsall beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 1.36 / defence 1.23 against Notts County attack 1.02 / defence 1.05, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Walsall 42% | Draw 24% | Notts County 34%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 61%, Notts County 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Walsall's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Notts County's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Walsall 1.55 PPG, Notts County 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Walsall win broke the near-deadlock. Walsall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Notts County (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights