Walsall vs Notts County – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Walsall's attack rating (1.36) and Notts County's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Notts County's attack (1.02x) against Walsall's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
42%
2.40
24%
4.21
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Walsall xG
Total xG
3.27
1.55
Notts County xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
9%
11.27
6%
16.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Walsall vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Walsall and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Walsall and 1.55 for Notts County, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Walsall vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.