Walsall 0-2 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Harrogate Town at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Walsall face Harrogate Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Walsall and Harrogate Town meet at Bescot Stadium in League Two (matchday 45). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Walsall's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Walsall have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Harrogate Town have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Harrogate Town have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Walsall against 1.00 for Harrogate Town. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 9 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for Walsall, 3 for Harrogate Town and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Walsall 2–0 Harrogate Town — a Walsall win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Walsall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 90 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Harrogate Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 90 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Walsall 53% versus Harrogate Town 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Walsall 49% | Harrogate Town 39%). Note also that Harrogate Town surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Walsall recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Walsall 1.00 xG and Harrogate Town 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Walsall attack 0.761 / defence 1.225 | Harrogate Town attack 0.931 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.200. Walsall's attack rating of 0.761 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Walsall's defence rating of 1.225 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Harrogate Town's projected output up. Data: built from Walsall's last 90 games and Harrogate Town's last 90.
Result probabilities: Walsall 27% | Draw 27% | Harrogate Town 45%. Fair-value odds: Walsall 3.64 | Draw 3.67 | Harrogate Town 2.21. Harrogate Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Harrogate Town at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Harrogate Town if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Walsall 40% (last 10 home games) | Harrogate Town 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Walsall vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 45 | Venue: Bescot Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Walsall 27% | Draw 27% | Harrogate Town 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Walsall 1.00 / Harrogate Town 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Walsall attack 0.761 / def 1.225 | Harrogate Town attack 0.931 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Harrogate Town (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Walsall xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Harrogate Town xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Walsall vs Harrogate Town FAQs
What time does Walsall vs Harrogate Town kick off?
Walsall vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Bescot Stadium.
What was the final score in Walsall vs Harrogate Town?
Walsall 0 - 2 Harrogate Town.
Where is Walsall vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at Bescot Stadium.
What competition is Walsall vs Harrogate Town part of?
Walsall vs Harrogate Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 45) (England).
Who is favourite to win Walsall vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives Walsall a 27% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Harrogate Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Walsall vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Walsall and Harrogate Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Walsall vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Walsall's attack at 0.76x the league average against Harrogate Town's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Harrogate Town's attack (0.93x) against Walsall's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from Walsall's last 90 games and Harrogate Town's last 90 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Harrogate Town Win
27%
3.64
27%
3.67
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Walsall xG
Total xG
2.37
1.37
Harrogate Town xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
7%
14.32
17%
6.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Walsall vs Harrogate Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Walsall vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Walsall and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Walsall and 1.37 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Walsall vs Harrogate Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Walsall's recent record stands at 39W 25D 26L from 90 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Harrogate Town, meanwhile, have gone 23W 20D 47L across 90 games — 0.99 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Walsall by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Harrogate Town heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Walsall have managed 20W 11D 14L from their last 45 home games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Harrogate Town's away record stands at 9W 13D 23L across their last 45 away games, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Walsall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Walsall are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 0.88 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 90 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Walsall
Current Season
Harrogate Town
Current Season
Walsall (Home) vs Harrogate Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Walsall
Current Season
Harrogate Town
Current Season
❓ Walsall vs Harrogate Town Form FAQs
What form are Walsall and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
Walsall have gone 39W 25D 26L in their last 90 games (1.58 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 23W 20D 47L in their last 90 (0.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Walsall at home or Harrogate Town away?
Walsall's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Walsall at home: 1.58 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Walsall and Harrogate Town, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Harrogate Town won Harrogate Town 3-0 Walsall on 18 Apr 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Walsall have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Harrogate Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Walsall
2
Draws
4
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Walsall vs Harrogate Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Harrogate Town?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Walsall have won 4, Harrogate Town have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Walsall and Harrogate Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Walsall 0-2 Harrogate Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Walsall 62%, Harrogate Town 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Walsall) and 36% (Harrogate Town).
On the defensive side: Harrogate Town in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Walsall home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Walsall vs Harrogate Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Walsall and Harrogate Town matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Walsall's recent matches and 47% of Harrogate Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Walsall and Harrogate Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Walsall's recent games and 36% of Harrogate Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Walsall and Harrogate Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Walsall's recent matches and 60% of Harrogate Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Harrogate Town cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Walsall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Harrogate Town beat Walsall 0-2 at Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 1.00 xG and Harrogate Town 1.37 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Walsall fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 0.76 / defence 1.23 against Harrogate Town attack 0.93 / defence 1.05, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Walsall 27% | Draw 27% | Harrogate Town 45%, with Harrogate Town to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 49%, Harrogate Town 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Walsall's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Walsall arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.99. Form was overturned, with Harrogate Town winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Walsall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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