🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Crawley Town make the trip to The Wham Stadium to face Accrington ST in League Two, Regular Season - 45. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Accrington ST's overall League Two record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Accrington ST at The Wham Stadium this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Crawley Town (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Crawley Town have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Accrington ST against 1.00 for Crawley Town. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Accrington ST have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Crawley Town in only 10%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Accrington ST lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Accrington ST — key trading statistics (90 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Crawley Town — key trading statistics (90 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 47% versus Crawley Town 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 43% | Crawley Town 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.18 xG and Crawley Town 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.827 / defence 1.029 | Crawley Town attack 0.622 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.200. Data: 90 Accrington ST games / 44 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Accrington ST 46% | Draw 30% | Crawley Town 24%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Crawley Town 4.17. Accrington ST hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Accrington ST are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Accrington ST if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 30% | Crawley Town 10% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights