Walsall 1-1 Grimsby – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Walsall at 50%, yet in-form Grimsby provide a compelling counter-argument — this Walsall vs Grimsby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Walsall host Grimsby at Poundland Bescot Stadium in League Two (matchday 5). Kick-off is Saturday 26 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Walsall stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Walsall at home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Grimsby have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Grimsby's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Grimsby are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Walsall have won 0, Grimsby 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Mar 2023, ended Walsall 1–1 Grimsby — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Walsall trading profile (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Grimsby trading profile (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Walsall 54% versus Grimsby 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Walsall 40% | Grimsby 38%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Walsall surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Grimsby have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Walsall 1.64 xG and Grimsby 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Walsall attack 0.999 / defence 0.901 | Grimsby attack 1.006 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.202. Data: built from Walsall's last 50 games and Grimsby's last 50.
Result probabilities: Walsall 50% | Draw 25% | Grimsby 25%. Fair-value odds: Walsall 2.00 | Draw 3.98 | Grimsby 4.00. Walsall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Walsall are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Grimsby (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Walsall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Walsall's last 10 home games and Grimsby's last 10 away games) averaging only 2.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Walsall 40% (last 10 home games) | Grimsby 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Walsall vs Grimsby | Competition: League Two, matchday 5 | Venue: Poundland Bescot Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Walsall 50% | Draw 25% | Grimsby 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Walsall 1.64 / Grimsby 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Walsall attack 0.999 / def 0.901 | Grimsby attack 1.006 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Walsall (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Walsall xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Grimsby xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Walsall vs Grimsby FAQs
What time does Walsall vs Grimsby kick off?
Walsall vs Grimsby kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Poundland Bescot Stadium.
What was the final score in Walsall vs Grimsby?
Walsall 1 - 1 Grimsby.
Where is Walsall vs Grimsby being played?
The match is being played at Poundland Bescot Stadium.
What competition is Walsall vs Grimsby part of?
Walsall vs Grimsby is a League Two fixture (matchday 5) (England).
Who is favourite to win Walsall vs Grimsby?
Our statistical model gives Walsall a 50% chance of winning, Grimsby a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Walsall vs Grimsby?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Walsall and Grimsby will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Walsall vs Grimsby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Walsall's attack rating (1.00) and Grimsby's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Grimsby's attack versus Walsall's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Walsall's last 50 games and Grimsby's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
50%
2.00
25%
3.98
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Walsall xG
Total xG
2.73
1.09
Grimsby xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
5%
20.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.7 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Walsall vs Grimsby Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Walsall vs Grimsby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Walsall and Grimsby expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Walsall and 1.09 for Grimsby, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Walsall vs Grimsby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Walsall have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 13W 20D 17L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Grimsby's form line: 17W 15D 18L from 50 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Walsall on 1.18 PPG, Grimsby on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Walsall have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 24 home games (10W 9D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Walsall are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Grimsby have gone 9W 3D 12L from their last 24 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Walsall are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Grimsby are on 1.08 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Walsall
Early Season
Grimsby
Early Season
Walsall (Home) vs Grimsby (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Walsall
Early Season
Grimsby
Early Season
❓ Walsall vs Grimsby Form FAQs
What form are Walsall and Grimsby in coming into this match?
Walsall have gone 13W 20D 17L in their last 50 games (1.18 PPG), while Grimsby have gone 17W 15D 18L in their last 50 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Walsall at home or Grimsby away?
Walsall's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Walsall at home: 1.62 PPG; Grimsby away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Walsall or Grimsby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Walsall have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Grimsby in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Jan 2024, when Walsall won Grimsby 1-6 Walsall.
Walsall's record when hosting Grimsby specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Walsall
4
Draws
3
Grimsby
Recent Meetings
❓ Walsall vs Grimsby H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Grimsby?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Walsall have won 2, Grimsby have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Walsall and Grimsby last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Walsall 0-0 Grimsby.
Who has won more matches between Walsall and Grimsby?
Grimsby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Grimsby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Walsall 54%, Grimsby 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Walsall) and 46% (Grimsby).
On the defensive side: Walsall keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Walsall have failed to score in 29% of games; Grimsby in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Walsall home games / Grimsby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Walsall vs Grimsby Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Walsall and Grimsby matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Walsall's recent matches and 46% of Grimsby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Walsall and Grimsby matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Walsall's recent games and 46% of Grimsby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Walsall and Grimsby matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Walsall's recent matches and 62% of Grimsby's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Walsall and Grimsby share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Poundland Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Walsall and Grimsby drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 1.64 xG and Grimsby 1.09 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 1.00 / defence 0.90 against Grimsby attack 1.01 / defence 1.16, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Walsall 50% | Draw 25% | Grimsby 25%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 40%, Grimsby 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Walsall's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Grimsby's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Walsall 1.18 PPG, Grimsby 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League Two fixtures — matchday 5
All League Two fixtures →
More UK football predictions →