Walsall 0-0 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambridge United at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Walsall vs Cambridge United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Walsall and Cambridge United meet at Bescot Stadium in League Two (matchday 38). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Current Form
Walsall's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Walsall have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Cambridge United have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Cambridge United's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Cambridge United arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Walsall, 1 for Cambridge United and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Jan 2026, ended Walsall 0–2 Cambridge United — a Cambridge United win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Walsall — key trading statistics (last 82 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Cambridge United — key trading statistics (last 82 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Walsall 51% versus Cambridge United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Walsall 46% | Cambridge United 40%). Note also that Cambridge United surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Walsall recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Walsall 0.78 xG and Cambridge United 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Walsall attack 0.766 / defence 1.088 | Cambridge United attack 1.061 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.185. Walsall's attack rating of 0.766 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Data: built from Walsall's last 83 games and Cambridge United's last 36.
Result probabilities: Walsall 21% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 51%. Fair-value odds: Walsall 4.69 | Draw 3.59 | Cambridge United 1.97. Cambridge United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambridge United are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambridge United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Walsall's last 10 home games and Cambridge United's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Walsall 50% (last 10 home games) | Cambridge United 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Walsall vs Cambridge United | Competition: League Two, matchday 38 | Venue: Bescot Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Walsall 21% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Walsall 0.78 / Cambridge United 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Walsall attack 0.766 / def 1.088 | Cambridge United attack 1.061 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Cambridge United (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Walsall xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Cambridge United xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Walsall vs Cambridge United FAQs
What time does Walsall vs Cambridge United kick off?
Walsall vs Cambridge United kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at Bescot Stadium.
What was the final score in Walsall vs Cambridge United?
Walsall 0 - 0 Cambridge United.
Where is Walsall vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Bescot Stadium.
What competition is Walsall vs Cambridge United part of?
Walsall vs Cambridge United is a League Two fixture (matchday 38) (England).
Who is favourite to win Walsall vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Walsall a 21% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cambridge United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Walsall vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Walsall and Cambridge United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Walsall vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Walsall's attack rating (0.77) and Cambridge United's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cambridge United's attack (1.06x) against Walsall's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from Walsall's last 83 games and Cambridge United's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambridge United Win
21%
4.69
28%
3.59
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Walsall xG
Total xG
2.15
1.37
Cambridge United xG
4.69
21%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
5%
18.44
23%
4.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 16.0 | 10.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Walsall vs Cambridge United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Walsall vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Walsall and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Walsall and 1.37 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Walsall vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Walsall's recent record stands at 36W 22D 24L from 82 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Cambridge United, meanwhile, have gone 28W 22D 32L across 82 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Walsall against 1.29 for Cambridge United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Walsall have managed 18W 9D 13L from their last 40 home games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambridge United's away record stands at 11W 11D 18L across their last 40 away games, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Walsall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Walsall are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.22 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 82 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Walsall
Current Season
Cambridge United
Current Season
Walsall (Home) vs Cambridge United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Walsall
Current Season
Cambridge United
Current Season
❓ Walsall vs Cambridge United Form FAQs
What form are Walsall and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Walsall have gone 36W 22D 24L in their last 82 games (1.59 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 28W 22D 32L in their last 82 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Walsall at home or Cambridge United away?
Walsall's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Walsall at home: 1.58 PPG; Cambridge United away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Walsall and Cambridge United, the earliest from January 2026. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 17 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Walsall
1
Draws
1
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Walsall vs Cambridge United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Cambridge United?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Walsall have won 0, Cambridge United have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Walsall and Cambridge United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 March 2026: Walsall 0-0 Cambridge United.
Who has won more matches between Walsall and Cambridge United?
Cambridge United have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Walsall 62%, Cambridge United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Walsall) and 45% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Cambridge United in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Walsall home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Walsall vs Cambridge United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Walsall and Cambridge United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Walsall's games and 50% of Cambridge United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Walsall and Cambridge United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Walsall's recent games and 45% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Walsall and Cambridge United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Walsall's recent matches and 68% of Cambridge United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Walsall's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Walsall and Cambridge United finished level at 0-0 at Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 0.78 xG and Cambridge United 1.37 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cambridge United landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 0.77 / defence 1.09 against Cambridge United attack 1.06 / defence 0.83, drawn from 83/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Walsall 21% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 51%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 46%, Cambridge United 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Walsall's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cambridge United's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Walsall 1.59 PPG, Cambridge United 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Walsall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Cambridge United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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