Tranmere vs Port Vale Prediction & Preview
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Tranmere at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Tranmere face Port Vale.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prenton Park plays host to Tranmere versus Port Vale in League Two (matchday 35). Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Tranmere's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Tranmere have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Port Vale have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Port Vale's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Tranmere, 1.40 for Port Vale — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Tranmere, 0 for Port Vale and 5 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.2 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 22 Aug 2026, ended Tranmere 1–1 Port Vale — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Tranmere half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Port Vale half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tranmere 60% versus Port Vale 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tranmere 50% | Port Vale 34%). Note also that Port Vale surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Tranmere recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tranmere 1.71 xG and Port Vale 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tranmere attack 1.002 / defence 0.984 | Port Vale attack 0.605 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.143. Port Vale's attack rating of 0.605 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.68. Data: built from Tranmere's last 60 games and Port Vale's last 12.
Result probabilities: Tranmere 61% | Draw 26% | Port Vale 13%. Fair-value odds: Tranmere 1.65 | Draw 3.79 | Port Vale 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Tranmere (61%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tranmere are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Tranmere 70% (last 10 home games) | Port Vale 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tranmere vs Port Vale | Competition: League Two, matchday 35 | Venue: Prenton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tranmere 61% | Draw 26% | Port Vale 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Tranmere 1.71 / Port Vale 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Tranmere attack 1.002 / def 0.984 | Port Vale attack 0.605 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Tranmere (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Tranmere xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Port Vale xG
42%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tranmere vs Port Vale FAQs
What time does Tranmere vs Port Vale kick off?
Tranmere vs Port Vale is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Prenton Park.
Where is Tranmere vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at Prenton Park.
What competition is Tranmere vs Port Vale part of?
Tranmere vs Port Vale is a League Two fixture (matchday 35) (England).
Who is favourite to win Tranmere vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Tranmere a 61% chance of winning, Port Vale a 13% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Tranmere the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tranmere vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Tranmere and Port Vale will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Tranmere vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tranmere's attack at 1.00x the league average against Port Vale's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port Vale's attack (0.60x) against Tranmere's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from Tranmere's last 60 games and Port Vale's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.4%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tranmere Win
61%
1.65
26%
3.79
13%
7.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Tranmere xG
Total xG
2.39
0.68
Port Vale xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
7.69
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
31%
3.26
2%
42.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 10.7 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tranmere vs Port Vale Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tranmere vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Tranmere and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Tranmere and 0.68 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Tranmere vs Port Vale?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tranmere's recent record stands at 13W 17D 28L from 58 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Port Vale, meanwhile, have gone 14W 15D 29L across 58 games — 0.98 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Tranmere against 0.98 for Port Vale. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Tranmere have managed 6W 9D 14L from their last 29 home games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port Vale's away record stands at 6W 4D 19L across their last 29 away games, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Tranmere are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 0.79 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tranmere have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tranmere
Blended
Port Vale
Blended
Tranmere (Home) vs Port Vale (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tranmere
Blended
Port Vale
Blended
❓ Tranmere vs Port Vale Form FAQs
What form are Tranmere and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Tranmere have gone 13W 17D 28L in their last 58 games (0.97 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 14W 15D 29L in their last 58 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tranmere at home or Port Vale away?
Tranmere's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tranmere at home: 0.93 PPG; Port Vale away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Tranmere and Port Vale, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 5 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tranmere have gone 0W 2D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Port Vale — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Tranmere
5
Draws
0
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Tranmere vs Port Vale H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tranmere and Port Vale?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Tranmere have won 0, Port Vale have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Tranmere and Port Vale last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Port Vale 1-1 Tranmere.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tranmere are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tranmere 59%, Port Vale 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Tranmere) and 41% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Tranmere have failed to score in 28% of games; Port Vale in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tranmere home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tranmere vs Port Vale Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tranmere and Port Vale matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Tranmere's recent matches and 34% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Tranmere and Port Vale matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Tranmere's recent games and 41% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tranmere and Port Vale matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Tranmere's recent matches and 62% of Port Vale's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
Related fixtures
More League Two fixtures — matchday 35
All League Two fixtures →
More UK football predictions →