Crawley Town 2-5 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Carlisle at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Carlisle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 34 as Crawley Town welcome Carlisle to Broadfield Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Crawley Town — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Broadfield Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Crawley Town are significantly better at Broadfield Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, Carlisle have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Carlisle's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Carlisle — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Crawley Town have won 1, Carlisle 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 0–1 with Carlisle winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Crawley Town trading profile (75 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Carlisle trading profile (75 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 61% versus Carlisle 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 56% | Carlisle 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.25 xG and Carlisle 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.153 / defence 1.228 | Carlisle attack 1.141 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.064. Data: 75 Crawley Town games / 78 Carlisle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 32% | Draw 26% | Carlisle 43%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Carlisle 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Carlisle at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carlisle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 60% | Carlisle 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Carlisle | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 32% | Draw 26% | Carlisle 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Crawley Town 1.25 / Carlisle 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.153 / def 1.228 | Carlisle attack 1.141 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Carlisle (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Carlisle xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Carlisle kick off?
Crawley Town vs Carlisle kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Carlisle?
Crawley Town 2 - 5 Carlisle.
Where is Crawley Town vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Carlisle part of?
Crawley Town vs Carlisle is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 32% chance of winning, Carlisle a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Carlisle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Crawley Town and Carlisle will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Carlisle?
Record (3 meetings): Crawley Town 1W | Draws 1 | Carlisle 1W.
What form are Crawley Town and Carlisle in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Carlisle (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Crawley Town's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Carlisle's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Carlisle's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carlisle Win
32%
3.16
26%
3.90
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.74
1.49
Carlisle xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
7%
14.02
12%
8.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.49 for Carlisle, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Carlisle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 23W 18D 34L from 75 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Carlisle, meanwhile, have gone 28W 19D 28L across 75 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.16 PPG, Carlisle on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 14W 8D 14L from 36 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carlisle's away record stands at 11W 8D 17L across 36 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 1.15 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 75 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Carlisle
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Carlisle in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 23W 18D 34L in their last 75 games (1.16 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 28W 19D 28L in their last 75 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Carlisle away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.39 PPG; Carlisle away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Carlisle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Carlisle in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Carlisle runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Carlisle have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when Carlisle won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Carlisle specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
1
Draws
2
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Carlisle?
From 4 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 1, Carlisle have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Carlisle last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Crawley Town 2-5 Carlisle.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Carlisle?
Carlisle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 58%, Carlisle 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Crawley Town) and 61% (Carlisle). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 28% of games; Carlisle in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Carlisle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 50% of Carlisle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Carlisle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Crawley Town's matches and 61% of Carlisle's.
Do Crawley Town and Carlisle tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Carlisle in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Carlisle run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carlisle beat Crawley Town 2-5 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.25 xG and Carlisle 1.49 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Carlisle outscored their 1.49 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.15 / defence 1.23 against Carlisle attack 1.14 / defence 0.93, drawn from 75/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 32% | Draw 26% | Carlisle 43%, with Carlisle to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Carlisle 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Carlisle's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.16 PPG, Carlisle 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carlisle win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Carlisle (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.