Tranmere 0-1 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Tranmere at 35%, yet in-form Accrington ST provide a compelling counter-argument — this Tranmere vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Accrington ST travel to Prenton Park to take on Tranmere in League Two (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 25 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Tranmere — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Tranmere's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Tranmere are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Accrington ST stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Accrington ST's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Accrington ST — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Tranmere have won 1, Accrington ST 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Apr 2024, ended Tranmere 1–4 Accrington ST — a Accrington ST win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Tranmere in-play tendencies (last 77 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (last 77 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tranmere 56% versus Accrington ST 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tranmere 53% | Accrington ST 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tranmere 1.16 xG and Accrington ST 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tranmere attack 0.767 / defence 1.082 | Accrington ST attack 0.998 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.065. Tranmere's attack rating of 0.767 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Data: built from Tranmere's last 78 games and Accrington ST's last 77.
Result probabilities: Tranmere 35% | Draw 30% | Accrington ST 35%. Fair-value odds: Tranmere 2.84 | Draw 3.32 | Accrington ST 2.89. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Tranmere 35% and Accrington ST 35%, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Tranmere 70% (last 10 home games) | Accrington ST 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tranmere vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, matchday 22 | Venue: Prenton Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tranmere 35% | Draw 30% | Accrington ST 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Tranmere 1.16 / Accrington ST 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Tranmere attack 0.767 / def 1.082 | Accrington ST attack 0.998 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Tranmere and Accrington ST level at 35% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Tranmere xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Accrington ST xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tranmere vs Accrington ST FAQs
What time does Tranmere vs Accrington ST kick off?
Tranmere vs Accrington ST kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 25 February 2025 at Prenton Park.
What was the final score in Tranmere vs Accrington ST?
Tranmere 0 - 1 Accrington ST.
Where is Tranmere vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Prenton Park.
What competition is Tranmere vs Accrington ST part of?
Tranmere vs Accrington ST is a League Two fixture (matchday 22) (England).
Who is favourite to win Tranmere vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Tranmere a 35% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Tranmere vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Tranmere and Accrington ST will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Tranmere vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Tranmere's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Accrington ST's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Tranmere's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Tranmere's last 78 games and Accrington ST's last 77 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tranmere Win
35%
2.84
30%
3.32
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Tranmere xG
Total xG
2.31
1.15
Accrington ST xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
11%
8.98
11%
9.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.4 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tranmere vs Accrington ST Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tranmere vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Tranmere and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Tranmere and 1.15 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Tranmere vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 77 outings, Tranmere have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 23W 16D 38L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Accrington ST's form line: 23W 18D 36L from 77 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tranmere on 1.10 PPG, Accrington ST on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Tranmere have posted 1.55 PPG from their last 38 home games (16W 11D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Tranmere are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 10W 6D 22L from their last 38 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tranmere come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tranmere are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.27 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 77 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tranmere
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
Tranmere (Home) vs Accrington ST (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tranmere
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
❓ Tranmere vs Accrington ST Form FAQs
What form are Tranmere and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Tranmere have gone 23W 16D 38L in their last 77 games (1.10 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 23W 18D 36L in their last 77 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tranmere at home or Accrington ST away?
Tranmere's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tranmere at home: 1.55 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2023. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 17 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Apr 2024, when Accrington ST won Accrington ST 4-1 Tranmere.
Tranmere's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Tranmere
2
Draws
3
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Tranmere vs Accrington ST H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tranmere and Accrington ST?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Tranmere have won 1, Accrington ST have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tranmere and Accrington ST last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2026: Tranmere 0-1 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Tranmere and Accrington ST?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tranmere are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tranmere 60%, Accrington ST 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Tranmere and 66% for Accrington ST. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tranmere home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tranmere vs Accrington ST Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tranmere and Accrington ST matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Tranmere's games and 68% of Accrington ST's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Tranmere and Accrington ST matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Tranmere's matches and 66% of Accrington ST's.
Do Tranmere and Accrington ST matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Tranmere's recent matches and 74% of Accrington ST's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Accrington ST defy the odds to beat Tranmere 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Tranmere 0-1 at Prenton Park, Regular Season - 22, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tranmere 1.16 xG and Accrington ST 1.15 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tranmere fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tranmere attack 0.77 / defence 1.08 against Accrington ST attack 1.00 / defence 1.16, drawn from 78/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tranmere 35% | Draw 30% | Accrington ST 35%, with Tranmere to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Accrington ST win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tranmere 53%, Accrington ST 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tranmere's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Accrington ST's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tranmere 1.10 PPG, Accrington ST 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Accrington ST win broke the near-deadlock. Tranmere (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Accrington ST (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League Two fixtures — matchday 22
All League Two fixtures →
More UK football predictions →