🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Salford City (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Salford City face Barrow.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 22 as Salford City welcome Barrow to The Peninsula Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 26 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Salford City — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at The Peninsula Stadium, Salford City have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Barrow stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Barrow, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Barrow away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On current form, Salford City have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Salford City's 30% rate and Barrow's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Salford City, 0 for Barrow and 4 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 5–3 with Salford City winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Salford City in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Barrow in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 61% versus Barrow 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 56% | Barrow 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.20 xG and Barrow 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 1.037 / defence 0.852 | Barrow attack 0.645 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.189. Data: 66 Salford City games / 66 Barrow games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Salford City 49% | Draw 32% | Barrow 19%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.04 | Draw 3.12 | Barrow 5.26. Salford City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Barrow's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Salford City at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salford City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Salford City 30% | Barrow 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights