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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Swindon Town cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Tranmere.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swindon Town beat Tranmere 3-1 at The Nigel Eady County Ground, Regular Season - 29, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 2.44 xG and Tranmere 0.85 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.22 / defence 1.08 against Tranmere attack 0.68 / defence 1.53, drawn from 74/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 72% | Draw 18% | Tranmere 10%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 64%, Tranmere 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swindon Town's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Tranmere's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.12 PPG, Tranmere 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swindon Town win broke the near-deadlock. Swindon Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. Tranmere (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights