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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Swindon Town edge out Shrewsbury 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swindon Town beat Shrewsbury 2-1 at County Ground, Regular Season - 5, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 2.35 xG and Shrewsbury 1.02 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.08 / defence 1.24 against Shrewsbury attack 0.74 / defence 1.69, drawn from 50/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 66% | Draw 19% | Shrewsbury 15%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 56%, Shrewsbury 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swindon Town's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Shrewsbury's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Swindon Town arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights