Swindon Town 1-1 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swindon Town at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swindon Town vs Salford City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Swindon Town host Salford City at The County Ground in League Two, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Swindon Town have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Swindon Town's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at The County Ground this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Swindon Town are significantly better at The County Ground than their overall form suggests.
Salford City — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Salford City away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Salford City — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Swindon Town have won 2, Salford City 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Swindon Town in-play and half-time data (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Salford City in-play and half-time data (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swindon Town 58% versus Salford City 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swindon Town 58% | Salford City 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 1.60 xG and Salford City 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 1.079 / defence 1.015 | Salford City attack 0.979 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.332. Data: 76 Swindon Town games / 76 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swindon Town 43% | Draw 26% | Salford City 31%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Salford City 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swindon Town at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Salford City (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swindon Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Swindon Town 50% | Salford City 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swindon Town vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: The County Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swindon Town 43% | Draw 26% | Salford City 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Swindon Town 1.60 / Salford City 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Swindon Town attack 1.079 / def 1.015 | Salford City attack 0.979 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Swindon Town xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Salford City xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swindon Town vs Salford City kick off?
Swindon Town vs Salford City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at The County Ground.
What was the final score in Swindon Town vs Salford City?
Swindon Town 1 - 1 Salford City.
Where is Swindon Town vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at The County Ground.
What competition is Swindon Town vs Salford City part of?
Swindon Town vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Swindon Town vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Swindon Town a 43% chance of winning, Salford City a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swindon Town vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Swindon Town and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Swindon Town vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Salford City?
Record (5 meetings): Swindon Town 2W | Draws 2 | Salford City 1W.
What form are Swindon Town and Salford City in?
Swindon Town (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Salford City (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Swindon Town's attack rating (1.08) and Salford City's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus Swindon Town's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
43%
2.33
26%
3.83
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
2.92
1.32
Salford City xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
11%
8.75
6%
15.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Swindon Town and 1.32 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swindon Town's recent record stands at 26W 20D 30L from 76 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Salford City, meanwhile, have gone 31W 15D 30L across 76 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swindon Town on 1.29 PPG, Salford City on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Swindon Town have managed 17W 8D 12L from 37 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salford City's away record stands at 17W 6D 14L across 37 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Swindon Town are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.50 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 76 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swindon Town
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swindon Town and Salford City in coming into this match?
Swindon Town have gone 26W 20D 30L in their last 76 games (1.29 PPG), while Salford City have gone 31W 15D 30L in their last 76 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swindon Town at home or Salford City away?
Swindon Town's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swindon Town at home: 1.59 PPG; Salford City away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Salford City go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Swindon Town's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Swindon Town
4
Draws
4
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Salford City?
From 10 meetings on record, Swindon Town have won 2, Salford City have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Swindon Town and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Swindon Town 2-3 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Swindon Town and Salford City?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swindon Town 46%, Salford City 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Swindon Town) and 54% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Swindon Town keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Swindon Town have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swindon Town home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swindon Town play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 57% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swindon Town vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Swindon Town's recent games and 54% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swindon Town and Salford City tend to score early?
Swindon Town have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Salford City in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swindon Town and Salford City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The County Ground, Regular Season - 32, as Swindon Town and Salford City drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.60 xG and Salford City 1.32 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against Salford City attack 0.98 / defence 1.00, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 43% | Draw 26% | Salford City 31%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 58%, Salford City 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swindon Town's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Salford City's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.29 PPG, Salford City 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.