Swindon Town 1-1 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swindon Town at 43%, yet in-form Salford City provide a compelling counter-argument — this Swindon Town vs Salford City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Swindon Town host Salford City at The County Ground in League Two (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Swindon Town have gone 2W 1D 7L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Swindon Town's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Swindon Town are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Salford City — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Salford City away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Salford City — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Swindon Town have won 1, Salford City 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Swindon Town 2–2 Salford City — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Swindon Town in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Salford City in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swindon Town 58% versus Salford City 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swindon Town 58% | Salford City 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 1.60 xG and Salford City 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 1.079 / defence 1.015 | Salford City attack 0.979 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.332. Data: built from Swindon Town's last 76 games and Salford City's last 76.
Result probabilities: Swindon Town 43% | Draw 26% | Salford City 31%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 2.33 | Draw 3.83 | Salford City 3.24. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swindon Town at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Salford City (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swindon Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Swindon Town's last 10 home games and Salford City's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Swindon Town 50% (last 10 home games) | Salford City 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swindon Town vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, matchday 32 | Venue: The County Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swindon Town 43% | Draw 26% | Salford City 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Swindon Town 1.60 / Salford City 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Swindon Town attack 1.079 / def 1.015 | Salford City attack 0.979 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Swindon Town xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Salford City xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Swindon Town vs Salford City FAQs
What time does Swindon Town vs Salford City kick off?
Swindon Town vs Salford City kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 10 February 2024 at The County Ground.
What was the final score in Swindon Town vs Salford City?
Swindon Town 1 - 1 Salford City.
Where is Swindon Town vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at The County Ground.
What competition is Swindon Town vs Salford City part of?
Swindon Town vs Salford City is a League Two fixture (matchday 32) (England).
Who is favourite to win Swindon Town vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Swindon Town a 43% chance of winning, Salford City a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swindon Town vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Swindon Town and Salford City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Swindon Town vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Swindon Town's attack rating (1.08) and Salford City's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus Swindon Town's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Swindon Town's last 76 games and Salford City's last 76 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
43%
2.33
26%
3.83
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
2.92
1.32
Salford City xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
11%
8.75
6%
15.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Swindon Town vs Salford City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Swindon Town and 1.32 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swindon Town's recent record stands at 26W 20D 30L from 76 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Salford City, meanwhile, have gone 31W 15D 30L across 76 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swindon Town on 1.29 PPG, Salford City on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Swindon Town have managed 17W 8D 12L from their last 37 home games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salford City's away record stands at 17W 6D 14L across their last 37 away games, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Swindon Town are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.50 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swindon Town
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
Swindon Town (Home) vs Salford City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Swindon Town
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
❓ Swindon Town vs Salford City Form FAQs
What form are Swindon Town and Salford City in coming into this match?
Swindon Town have gone 26W 20D 30L in their last 76 games (1.29 PPG), while Salford City have gone 31W 15D 30L in their last 76 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swindon Town at home or Salford City away?
Swindon Town's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swindon Town at home: 1.59 PPG; Salford City away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Salford City have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Swindon Town's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Swindon Town
4
Draws
5
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Swindon Town vs Salford City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Salford City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Swindon Town have won 1, Salford City have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Swindon Town and Salford City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Salford City 1-0 Swindon Town.
Who has won more matches between Swindon Town and Salford City?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swindon Town 46%, Salford City 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Swindon Town) and 54% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Swindon Town keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Swindon Town have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swindon Town home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Swindon Town vs Salford City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Swindon Town and Salford City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 57% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Swindon Town and Salford City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Swindon Town's recent games and 54% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swindon Town and Salford City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 68% of Salford City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swindon Town and Salford City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The County Ground, Regular Season - 32, as Swindon Town and Salford City drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.60 xG and Salford City 1.32 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against Salford City attack 0.98 / defence 1.00, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 43% | Draw 26% | Salford City 31%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 58%, Salford City 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swindon Town's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Salford City's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.29 PPG, Salford City 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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