Morecambe 1-0 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Morecambe at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Morecambe vs Sutton Utd encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mazuma Mobile Stadium plays host to Morecambe versus Sutton Utd in League Two (matchday 32). Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Morecambe (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Morecambe's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sutton Utd have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sutton Utd's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Morecambe. A 0.50 PPG lead over Sutton Utd (1.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Morecambe's last 10 home games and Sutton Utd's last 10 away games) — Morecambe have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Sutton Utd in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Morecambe edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Morecambe 3–2 Sutton Utd — a Morecambe win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Morecambe — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sutton Utd — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Morecambe 57% versus Sutton Utd 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Morecambe 58% | Sutton Utd 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Morecambe 1.63 xG and Sutton Utd 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Morecambe attack 0.848 / defence 1.039 | Sutton Utd attack 0.781 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.332. Sutton Utd's defence rating of 1.301 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Morecambe's projected output up. Sutton Utd's attack rating of 0.781 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Data: built from Morecambe's last 28 games and Sutton Utd's last 76.
Result probabilities: Morecambe 49% | Draw 26% | Sutton Utd 24%. Fair-value odds: Morecambe 2.03 | Draw 3.79 | Sutton Utd 4.12. Morecambe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Morecambe are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Morecambe if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Morecambe's last 10 home games and Sutton Utd's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Morecambe 80% (last 10 home games) | Sutton Utd 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Morecambe vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, matchday 32 | Venue: Mazuma Mobile Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Morecambe 49% | Draw 26% | Sutton Utd 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Morecambe 1.63 / Sutton Utd 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Morecambe attack 0.848 / def 1.039 | Sutton Utd attack 0.781 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Morecambe (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Morecambe xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Sutton Utd xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Morecambe vs Sutton Utd FAQs
What time does Morecambe vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Morecambe vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Mazuma Mobile Stadium.
What was the final score in Morecambe vs Sutton Utd?
Morecambe 1 - 0 Sutton Utd.
Where is Morecambe vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at Mazuma Mobile Stadium.
What competition is Morecambe vs Sutton Utd part of?
Morecambe vs Sutton Utd is a League Two fixture (matchday 32) (England).
Who is favourite to win Morecambe vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Morecambe a 49% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Morecambe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Morecambe vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Morecambe and Sutton Utd will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Morecambe vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Morecambe's attack at 0.85x the league average against Sutton Utd's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sutton Utd's attack (0.78x) against Morecambe's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from Morecambe's last 28 games and Sutton Utd's last 76 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Morecambe Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.79
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Morecambe xG
Total xG
2.71
1.08
Sutton Utd xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
5%
21.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.7 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Morecambe vs Sutton Utd Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Morecambe vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Morecambe and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Morecambe and 1.08 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Morecambe vs Sutton Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Morecambe come into this having played 74 games, going 21W 21D 32L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Sutton Utd sit at 1.07 PPG from 74 outings (19W 22D 33L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Morecambe against 1.07 for Sutton Utd. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Morecambe's home form reads 13W 13D 10L across their last 36 home games, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Sutton Utd have taken 0.75 points per game from their last 36 away games (5W 12D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Morecambe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Morecambe are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.05 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Morecambe
Current Season
Sutton Utd
Current Season
Morecambe (Home) vs Sutton Utd (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Morecambe
Current Season
Sutton Utd
Current Season
❓ Morecambe vs Sutton Utd Form FAQs
What form are Morecambe and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Morecambe have gone 21W 21D 32L in their last 74 games (1.14 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 19W 22D 33L in their last 74 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Morecambe at home or Sutton Utd away?
Morecambe's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Morecambe at home: 1.44 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Morecambe
0
Draws
0
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Morecambe vs Sutton Utd H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and Sutton Utd?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Morecambe have won 2, Sutton Utd have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Morecambe and Sutton Utd last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 February 2024: Morecambe 1-0 Sutton Utd.
Who has won more matches between Morecambe and Sutton Utd?
Morecambe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Morecambe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Morecambe 61%, Sutton Utd 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Morecambe) and 50% (Sutton Utd).
On the defensive side: Sutton Utd in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Morecambe home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Morecambe vs Sutton Utd Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Morecambe and Sutton Utd matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Morecambe's games and 56% of Sutton Utd's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Morecambe and Sutton Utd matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Morecambe's recent games and 50% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Morecambe and Sutton Utd matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Morecambe's recent matches and 72% of Sutton Utd's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Morecambe edge out Sutton Utd 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Morecambe beat Sutton Utd 1-0 at Mazuma Mobile Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Morecambe 1.63 xG and Sutton Utd 1.08 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sutton Utd landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Morecambe attack 0.85 / defence 1.04 against Sutton Utd attack 0.78 / defence 1.30, drawn from 28/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Morecambe 49% | Draw 26% | Sutton Utd 24%, with Morecambe to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Morecambe 58%, Sutton Utd 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Morecambe's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Morecambe 1.14 PPG, Sutton Utd 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Morecambe win broke the near-deadlock. Morecambe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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