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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Swindon Town and Port Vale share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at The Nigel Eady County Ground, Regular Season - 31, as Swindon Town and Port Vale drew 3-3 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.54 xG and Port Vale 1.04 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Swindon Town beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Port Vale outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.23 / defence 1.08 against Port Vale attack 0.82 / defence 0.94, drawn from 76/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 48% | Draw 28% | Port Vale 25%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 65%, Port Vale 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swindon Town's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Port Vale's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.18 PPG, Port Vale 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Swindon Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights