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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Swindon Town and Notts County share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at County Ground, Regular Season - 12, as Swindon Town and Notts County drew 2-2 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.58 xG and Notts County 1.16 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Notts County outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.21 / defence 1.05 against Notts County attack 0.95 / defence 0.97, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 47% | Draw 25% | Notts County 28%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 59%, Notts County 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swindon Town's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Notts County's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.48 PPG, Notts County 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights