Swindon Town 2-0 Newport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Swindon Town (68%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Swindon Town face Newport County.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Newport County make the trip to County Ground to face Swindon Town in League Two (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Swindon Town's record over their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Swindon Town have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Newport County have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Newport County have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Swindon Town. A 1.00 PPG lead over Newport County (1.80 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Swindon Town have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins, with Newport County managing 3 and 0 draws.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended Swindon Town 1–0 Newport County — a Swindon Town win.
The head-to-head data gives Swindon Town an edge — 6 wins from 9 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Swindon Town — key trading statistics (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Newport County — key trading statistics (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swindon Town 56% versus Newport County 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swindon Town 59% | Newport County 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 2.37 xG and Newport County 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 1.254 / defence 0.915 | Newport County attack 0.881 / defence 1.474. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.205. Swindon Town carry an above-average attack rating of 1.254 — their 2.37 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Newport County's defence rating of 1.474 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Swindon Town's projected output up. Data: built from Swindon Town's last 76 games and Newport County's last 75.
Result probabilities: Swindon Town 68% | Draw 18% | Newport County 14%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 1.46 | Draw 5.62 | Newport County 7.24. The model has a clear lean to Swindon Town (68%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Swindon Town are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Swindon Town's last 10 home games and Newport County's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Swindon Town 50% (last 10 home games) | Newport County 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swindon Town vs Newport County | Competition: League Two, matchday 26 | Venue: County Ground • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swindon Town 68% | Draw 18% | Newport County 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Swindon Town 2.37 / Newport County 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Swindon Town attack 1.254 / def 0.915 | Newport County attack 0.881 / def 1.474 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Swindon Town xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Newport County xG
56%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Swindon Town vs Newport County FAQs
What time does Swindon Town vs Newport County kick off?
Swindon Town vs Newport County kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at County Ground.
What was the final score in Swindon Town vs Newport County?
Swindon Town 2 - 0 Newport County.
Where is Swindon Town vs Newport County being played?
The match is being played at County Ground.
What competition is Swindon Town vs Newport County part of?
Swindon Town vs Newport County is a League Two fixture (matchday 26) (England).
Who is favourite to win Swindon Town vs Newport County?
Our statistical model gives Swindon Town a 68% chance of winning, Newport County a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swindon Town vs Newport County?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Swindon Town and Newport County will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Swindon Town vs Newport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Swindon Town's attack rating (1.25) and Newport County's defence rating (1.47), the model arrives at 2.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Newport County's attack (0.88x) against Swindon Town's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Swindon Town's last 76 games and Newport County's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
68%
1.46
18%
5.62
14%
7.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
3.34
0.97
Newport County xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.62
18%
Draw
7.24
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
9%
10.68
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
1%
77.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Swindon Town vs Newport County Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Newport County?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Newport County expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Swindon Town and 0.97 for Newport County, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Newport County?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Swindon Town come into this having played 75 games, going 32W 20D 23L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Newport County sit at 0.93 PPG from 75 outings (18W 16D 41L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Swindon Town carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Newport County — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Swindon Town's home form reads 18W 11D 8L across their last 37 home games, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Newport County have taken 0.68 points per game from their last 37 away games (6W 7D 24L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swindon Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Swindon Town are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Newport County are on 1.08 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swindon Town
Current Season
Newport County
Current Season
Swindon Town (Home) vs Newport County (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Swindon Town
Current Season
Newport County
Current Season
❓ Swindon Town vs Newport County Form FAQs
What form are Swindon Town and Newport County in coming into this match?
Swindon Town have gone 32W 20D 23L in their last 75 games (1.55 PPG), while Newport County have gone 18W 16D 41L in their last 75 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swindon Town at home or Newport County away?
Swindon Town's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swindon Town at home: 1.76 PPG; Newport County away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Swindon Town and Newport County, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 11 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Swindon Town have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Swindon Town won Swindon Town 4-0 Newport County on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swindon Town have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Newport County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Swindon Town
0
Draws
3
Newport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Swindon Town vs Newport County H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Newport County?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Swindon Town have won 7, Newport County have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Swindon Town and Newport County last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 February 2026: Swindon Town 2-0 Newport County.
Who has won more matches between Swindon Town and Newport County?
Swindon Town have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Newport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swindon Town 57%, Newport County 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Swindon Town) and 60% (Newport County). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Swindon Town keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Newport County in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swindon Town home games / Newport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Swindon Town vs Newport County Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Swindon Town and Newport County matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 46% of Newport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Swindon Town and Newport County matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Swindon Town's matches and 60% of Newport County's.
Do Swindon Town and Newport County matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 76% of Newport County's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swindon Town cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Newport County.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swindon Town beat Newport County 2-0 at County Ground, Regular Season - 26, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 2.37 xG and Newport County 0.97 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Newport County landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.25 / defence 0.92 against Newport County attack 0.88 / defence 1.47, drawn from 76/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 68% | Draw 18% | Newport County 14%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 59%, Newport County 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swindon Town's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Newport County's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Swindon Town arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Swindon Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Newport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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