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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Swindon Town cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Harrogate Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swindon Town beat Harrogate Town 3-1 at County Ground, Regular Season - 8, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.29 xG and Harrogate Town 1.14 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Swindon Town beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.11 / defence 1.20 against Harrogate Town attack 0.83 / defence 0.99, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 40% | Draw 27% | Harrogate Town 33%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 58%, Harrogate Town 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swindon Town's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Harrogate Town's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.45 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swindon Town win broke the near-deadlock. Swindon Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights