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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Swindon Town and Fleetwood Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swindon Town and Fleetwood Town finished level at 1-1 at County Ground, Regular Season - 40, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.18 xG and Fleetwood Town 0.94 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.16 / defence 0.96 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.82 / defence 0.84, drawn from 85/85 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 41% | Draw 30% | Fleetwood Town 29%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 58%, Fleetwood Town 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swindon Town's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Fleetwood Town's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.54 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights