🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Crewe defy the odds to beat Swindon Town 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crewe beat Swindon Town 1-2 at County Ground, Regular Season - 34, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.52 xG and Crewe 0.93 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Crewe outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.27 / defence 0.88 against Crewe attack 0.91 / defence 0.96, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 51% | Draw 26% | Crewe 23%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Crewe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 58%, Crewe 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swindon Town's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Crewe's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.56 PPG, Crewe 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights