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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Swindon Town edge out Crawley Town 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swindon Town beat Crawley Town 1-0 at County Ground, Regular Season - 21, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 2.02 xG and Crawley Town 1.11 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Swindon Town fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Crawley Town landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against Crawley Town attack 0.92 / defence 1.48, drawn from 66/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 58% | Draw 23% | Crawley Town 20%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 59%, Crawley Town 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swindon Town's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Crawley Town's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Swindon Town arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Swindon Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights