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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Chesterfield defy the odds to beat Swindon Town 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chesterfield beat Swindon Town 1-2 at County Ground, Regular Season - 46, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.34 xG and Chesterfield 1.26 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.15 / defence 1.01 against Chesterfield attack 1.04 / defence 0.90, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 39% | Draw 26% | Chesterfield 35%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Chesterfield win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 58%, Chesterfield 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swindon Town's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Chesterfield's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.51 PPG, Chesterfield 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chesterfield win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights